Daniel Ibrahim

The Looming Specter Of Warfare In The MENA Region

There are some key flashpoints in the middle east and north Africa that will become a cause for great concern in the coming days of the year 2020. These flashpoints include Israel, Libya, Yemen, Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and Iran. For some time now, these flashpoints have been boiling and they are all interwoven with threads of hatred and violence. Israel is almost everybody’s enemy in the region. The plunge of Libya and Syria into chaos paved the way for the strengthening of IS and the exportation of its brand of extremism to places like Nigeria and Mali. At the moment both countries are still plagued by fighting that spilled over from the Arab Spring. Yemen has dwindled into a proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Lebanon and Iraq have been rattled by civic discontent in recent times, both countries as at the time of writing have a serious leadership crisis, with citizens very angry at government for underperforming. Iran may lock horns directly or by proxy with the USA, if the sabre rattling by both countries goes beyond hurling words and degenerates into some confrontational missteps.

These hotspots are still boiling till today. The frequency of missile strikes by Hezbollah and other Iranian proxies on Israel has increased tremendously in the past few years. Two warring factions are violently laying claims to legitimacy in Libya and several foreign powers are throwing their weights and resources behind them . Syria has a splintered set of armed groups that have different motives and perspectives about why they are fighting or why they should lay down their arms. The belligerents in Yemen are finding it hard to get along off the battlefield and seat at the negotiation table, each side to the conflict seems to goaded into obstinacy by the powers that pull the strings behind the scenes – Saudi Arabia and Iran. Lebanon and Iraq are collectively undecided between the people and power – brokers, whether open elections or Iranian sponsored horse-trading will give them a new set of political leadership that can deliver good government to the angry people. Iran itself has been caught up in the throes of civic discontent. Some liberal – minded citizens are calling for sweeping reforms that may threaten political and social legacies from the revolution, while the ruling clerical class and its stalwarts in the political establishment cry sabotage. As these hotspots are boiling with many different bubbles of conflict and unrest, the threat that a new wave of asymmetric and non-asymmetric wars may break out in the MENA region is rife and these wars may go out of control.

There are serious socioeconomic implications for protracted armed conflict in the MENA region. These implications will cast a heavy toll of suffering and horrors on the lives of people in the region, especially those people who will not be taking up arms or will not be able to withstand other people with stronger arms. The implications for armed conflict in the region is more dreadful this time. This article examines some of the possible outcomes that a new wave of armed conflict can bring to the region. We start with the latest Casus Belli in the region, the United States’ elimination of Qassem Soleimani, a mystified figure now dead but seemingly more menacing in death.

How The Ghost Of Qassem Soleimani Heightens The Risk Of War In The MENA Region

The death of Qassem Soleimani , the shadowy commander of the Iranian Quds force, at the hands of the USA has brought its own dose of volatility and recriminations to a region where it seems so many state and non-state actors are persistently caught up in a trigger-ready mode, just spoiling for war. The Iranian political establishment, especially the theological side of state power has promised revenge (and has started to act on that) and President Trump has also talked tough, promising a very lethal response to whatever cast of vindictive action the Iranians give to Soleimani ’s death. After the latest Iranian missile strikes, which seemed to be more bark than bite, President Trump seems to be backtracking from open displays of retribution, while keeping his fingers crossed. For the Iranian state vengeance is surely not going to be against the US alone. It has accused two of America’s allies in the region, Saudi Arabia and Israel of culpability in the death of Soleimani . Both countries had an ax to grind with Soleimani while he was alive and it seems in death they may continue to fight with the specter of his influence in the region. For Israel this may mean more armed engagements with Hezbollah and a patchwork of Iranian military proxies that are all seriously peeved at the very idea of an Israeli state. For the Saudis they will have to keep more defensive eyes on the Houthis in Yemen, while trouble-spotting among Shiite discontents at home to the east. America, Israel and Saudi Arabia will surely be taking Iran’s threat with some measure of more caution given the technical upgrades Iran has acquired for long range missiles, the reason for such caution coming from the attacks of September 14,2019 on oil production facilities in the eastern part of Saudi Arabia and the recent Iranian strikes on US military targets.

Rekindling The Dying Flame Of ISIL

The Islamic state was thoroughly defeated by the combined efforts of Iraqi militias, backed by Iran and even supervised by Qassem Soleimani, Kurdish forces,Russian forces, troops from many Muslim countries and military forces from other countries led by the United States. ISIL was thoroughly beaten and it did not just run away, its proto-state in the middle – east, self-styled the caliphate was also rolled up like a Persian rug. ISIL tried to create a network of proto-states all over the world that would help it spread its highly extremist ideology and run rings around its opponents globally but such a dream was short-lived. To stop ISIL, old mutual enemies had to come together, to fight a common menace. Every party in the haphazardly and grudgingly formed coalition had different goals in the fight against ISIL . Some, like the Kurds, just wanted to protect tribal homelands from the predatory inhumanity of ISIL fighters , others like the Iraqis and the Syrians were battling to keep sovereignty and territory, while others like the US and the Saudis were aiming for the destruction of a wild form of extremism that could kindle wider resentment against them in future. The hastily patched coalition succeeded in defeating ISIL, liberating people and territory from its inhumane claws. Today, the prospect of ISIL reviving from its defeat is very strong. ISIL has been thoroughly but not totally defeated. It also has the potential to stage a daring comeback. It is an organization that thrives in a social climate of chaos. It also has the ability to recruit large numbers from farfetched sources, including the countries that are opposed to it. It may even give a sense of direction to groups of armed drifters, who lack patronage and recognition from bigger regional actors like the US, Saudi Arabia or Iran, attracting disaffected hordes to its cause . More dangerously, it could try to play off different opposing parties in the region against each other. The possibility of ISIL playing off opposing parties in the region could lie with battle – fatigue, where fighting is stalemated and each side is at its wit’s end, trying to break the deadlock in the fighting. An anxious move by any side may be to introduce ISIL as a battle set-piece. The opportunities for ISIL in the region are multiple even though for now they are latent. ISIL‘s prospects in the region may be strongly curtailed but can be bolstered once again, if the region descends into widespread chaos.

New Entrants And Their Convolution

There may be the rise of new belligerents in the region if the region becomes awash with a new round of fighting. There are many dissatisfied social and religious groups in the region who will not baulk at the chance of being armed and dangerous. Some ideological malcontents may also arise seizing a period of chaos as a grand opportunity to instill ideological doctrines in any space their arms can control. Some of these ideological malcontents may have a passionate hatred for Israel, others may hate the Saudis, while others may have some scores to settle with Iran. Others may just be opportunistic drifters who have caught on with the openings they now have to go wild. In such a welter of chaos, mental stability and sanity can easily take a holiday, especially if it gets some prompting from Opium, Hashish or the harsh sectarian interpretations of religious texts. The young, especially the young male population will be extensively vulnerable to inhumane - crudeness, in a region where underdevelopment is a byword for normal life and many social drifters abound.

New Weapons And Their Potential For Global And Regional Instability

One thing is certain about any new wars in the region, especially if these wars involve Iran or its numerous proxies, many of whom were said to be nurtured by the shadowy Qassem Soleimani, is that new weapons will enter the lethal equation. The strike on Saudi oil facilities to the east of the country last year, was allegedly an Iranian affair. In the wake of the elimination of Qassem Soleimani, new evidence from UN investigators pointed accusing fingers at Iran. Iran has now acquired missiles with the capability for long range strikes. This is a new development that Iran itself has been unwilling to admit until now. The tactical secrecy of the Iranian state may unravel itself more dangerously, if it comes to the battlefield with a lot of surprises that have been developed in at home. There could be some very sinister short range but highly lethal variety of weapons in the Iranian arsenal that may be handed down to proxy forces, with an unwitting charge to haul themselves and these weapons into the face of the enemy.

The Curbing Of Oil Exports And The Rise In The Price Of Crude

There will also be several Trans-regional economic shock waves. Closing and forcing the straits of Hormuz may go past recriminations to action, if the region boils. Oil producing installations will increasingly come under attack as a means of cutting off the economic arteries of opposing nations and as a means of weakening them, using long range missiles like the ones attributed to an Iranian source that was used to cut Saudi oil production by half in 2019. One measure that may be used to stop such attacks may be the deployment of missile detecting and preventing hardware like the Dome missile defense system in Israel. However, in a region where martyrdom or missiles will do just fine for military strikes, human saboteurs may do close range and daredevil bombings. The discontent by eastern Saudi Shiites may soon become a cause for grave concern because of the proximity of the dissatisfied eastern Saudi Shiites to the country’s oil production facilities ; with sufficient motivation from Iran, human martyrs may cause oil prices to skyrocket beyond a hundred dollars per barrel. America will also be considering crippling Iran by hitting at all its energy facilities, taking out oil and nuclear installations, in blitz strikes. In all, fighting will hemorrhage a region’s oil industry, which seats on top of many other economies of scale. If the oil flow is interrupted in the east, many livelihoods in the region will be shattered.

A Renewed MENA Migration Crisis

Muslims at the gates is a xenophobic refrain that has replaced that of barbarians at the gates in cultural Europe . Arab Muslims are the modern barbarians in the popular imagination that are seeking unwelcome entry, not pitying their humanitarian plight. Conflict in the MENA region somehow helps to open old cultural sores, some of which run centuries deep, from the time of the Ottomans in Europe. The crisis in the MENA region exports surviving human casualties to western lands and into a cultural matrix that is ice-cold towards the deepest cultural sensibilities of most of the migrants from the region. It is in this situational mix that modern Islamophobia is born. The situation is not helped by the fact that some sinister-minded elements join the influx of the distressed and the displaced from crisis – ridden MENA into Europe. One case in point was that of the ugly episodes of sexual abuse in Germany that occurred on new years eve of 2015 . Such events do much to entrench a hardline xenophobia against MENA Muslims. At the height of the Syrian refugee crisis in 2016, Turkey was consulted by the EU about the best way to prevent a wave of mostly Muslim Arab migrants from breaking into Europe uninvited. Over 3.5 million Syrian refugees are now in Turkey. The EU and Turkey both agreed that Turkey would serve as a buffer to this unwelcome party using Turkish law enforcement and refugee settlement as measures to prevent a human spillage from MENA into Europe. This arrangement came with the promise of some €6 Billion as financial compensation for Turkey, the country that was guarding the gates of the cultural soul of Europe. As new crisis threatens in the region, Turkey may not oblige the EU this time because the EU has not kept its own end of the bargain. The Turkish premier recently decried the EU’s commitment to rewarding Turkey for accepting and holding off the Syrian refugees from the EU. Turkey angrily restated in 2019 that only half of what was promised it for holding off a large influx of Syrian migrants from Europe has been paid. The remaining €3 billion, it was promised in 2016 has not entered its national coffers. Turkey has also complained severally that it has spent over $40 billion to take care of the Syrian refugees within its borders. In its own account the balance it expects from the EU is a paltry sum. Turkey is now considering turning the Syrian refugees loose upon the EU, if it fails to act reasonably and quickly. In the words of Erdogan the Turkish premier he would ‘open the gates’. Greece, which is the passage the Syrian refugees want to take into Europe has started receiving unwelcome arrivals by the hundreds, which its new government has promised to turn back, more harshly than before. In the end less humane buffers may be negotiated inside Syria itself that have local thugs in suits as local partners. Such an arrangement was the impetus for the migration horrors many African migrants from Sub-Saharan Africa suffered at the hands of ruthless anti - migration taskforces in Libya.

The Rise Of An Intensive Drug Trade

Qassem Soleimani the shadowy figure, who in death is triggering war in the MENA region, had something in common with President Trump, even though there is no love lost between them. They both have an aversion for drugs being smuggled into their countries. Qassem Soleimani was a hero of a local drug war in the 90s that was fought along the borders of Iran and Afghanistan. The drugs from Afghanistan that Soleimani fought against may soon create a new economic boom in the region , in the course of an armed conflict that could be sparked by an aggressive Iranian reaction to his death. Where convictions are not enough, some lily-livered folks may resort to narcotic stimulation and the region has one of the most stimulating narcotics on earth that can shoot sufficient disorienting stimulus up the veins and brains of combatants. As fighting intensifies, demand for narcotics will surely increase. Demand for hard drugs may not just stop at the region. Outlying markets in Europe and Sub-Saharan Africa may also key into the new high. In Africa demand may come from many of the hotspots in the region, while in Europe, rogue and deviant chemists may be able to synthesize new spins of older additive substances, if the primary compounds of these drugs saturate Europe’s underworld markets in larger quantities.

The Rise Of New Armed And Implacable Non-state Actors

ISIL is still on the lips of the global media and many analysts when it comes to armed conflict in the MENA region, some of the forces that emerged to fight it such as the Kurdish Pershmaga and the Syrian Democratic Forces have also been given extensive coverage by the media but little attention has been paid to Iraqi - Christian and other ethnic militia in Iraq and Syria that sprang up to the challenge of ISIS. The world should not be surprised if these forces gain destructive lethality and are joined by forces from other ethnic groups that have suffered not just at the hands of ISIL when it flourished in the region but from repression in the nations where they are currently bottled up. The Druze and the Yazidis and indeed other cultural minorities may form a network of defensive militias as well and these militias can tap into cultural and political sensibilities in the region to draw greater military support from Israel and the US through a Jewish lobby. These militias could also get Saudi and Gulf Cooperation Council(GCC) support, through a subtle American influence. If in conflict these militias can successfully defend and secure their communal turfs, they may grow more ambitious and demand full autonomy from the nation states, where they reluctantly subsist. Saudi Arabia and the GCC will surely prefer the emergence of neighboring states where Iranian and Shia influence has been cut to size. Saudi Arabia may also like to rattle its historical sectarian alter-ego, the Turks by redefining its borders by proxy. Saudis eastern hotspot may also rumble with instigations from Iran. All of these possibilities for territorial division may add a lethal flavor to the Kurdish question which already threatens to shake Turkey, Syria, Iran and Iraq into a crisis of state splintering that will permanently redefine the borders of these countries.

Scarred And Shattered Lives

The sad residual effects of the madness we call wars is almost always counted in deadly costs to human lives. Many people will have their humanity drained away as victims or perpetrators of wartime horrors. Women and children especially female children, would be the ones with a lot to lose because they would be the least armed and the most preyed. Under conditions of conflict, it would be easy for lecherous combatants to keep harems of victimized women and girls, as wartime spoils, in the same way women were terribly abused when the ISIL was at the zenith of its past territorial conquests in Syria and Iraq. Men who feature less as the fleshly targets of these predatory combatants may suffer more harrowing fates like beheading and decapitation. Under a spell of madness in a time of war, terrible things will happen and these things will leave in its wake dead bodies and emotional scars that may never be healed in a lifetime. There will also be unintended consequences in the course of conflict, like Iran’s supposedly mistaken downing of a Ukrainian civilian plane, and the casualties will mostly be civilians. At the moment, while armed engagement has not fully started, the first set of civilian casualties has been recorded. Iran has accepted responsibility for mistakenly firing 176 civilians to death on board a Boeing flight. Quite ironically, none of the dead were Americans. Iran’s prima facie acceptance of error, pretty much saves face for Boeing, which is rapidly being scandalized out of business worldwide with Boeing plane crashes . However, Iran in its specious moment of truth is receiving a backlash at home because that error has cost the country 82 lives. The furor abroad is also overwhelming when you add up the tallies of these unarmed dead ; Canada : 63,Ukraine :11,Sweden :10,Afghanistan :4, UK :3,Germany :3 and Nigeria :1.