Daniel Ibrahim

Some Socioeconomic Trends That May Occur Globally in 2020

The world braces for a long spell of uncertainty in the year 2020. We all wonder where the face-off between China and the USA would eventually leave the world. We do not also know if Brexit will destabilize the economy of Europe and spill a dreary contagion far and wide. We do not also know if the Chinese economy will crash from hidden shocks that have been shrewdly veiled by the Chinese state, notwithstanding the indices of convincing performance in cities like Shenzhen or Macao. If China falls, it will surely take global economic stability down with it. All of these economic uncertainties loom under the more remote but very palpable specter of the global AI revolution which may soon sweep away a vast chunk of human labor from global workplaces.

Away from economics, the world is on the brink of widespread armed conflict that is reminiscent of the times before and between the two world wars. The US and Iran may be going head to head in a very devastating armed conflict that could bring the military might of the US quite devastatingly upon Iran, which would also try to respond with vehemence in an asymmetric fashion that may do little direct damage to the US on its home soil but sufficient collateral damages to its interests, assets and allies abroad.

As the world steps into the last year of the second decade of the 21st century there is need to take stock, the old book keeper’s way but with a sense of more robust wisdom. What are the vulnerabilities the world is collectively carrying into the year 2020. What are the strengths it has developed that can be collectively shared. A common and more definitive approach to global issues is needed now more than ever. This approach should be designed in such a way that it does not erase national boundaries, crudely downplay and repress cultural sensibilities or sidestep hard pressing social questions with simplistic assumptions and generalizations. Inclusive dialogue and concerted action should define the new mode of problem solving on the international scene.

The vulnerabilities the world will be carrying into the new year include scattered pockets of armed conflict from Libya to Syria. It also includes the stoking tensions in Israel and the long drawn spell of terrorist violence by extremist-insurgents in parts of Africa, especially Nigeria, Chad, Niger, Cameroon and Mali. The economic and social woes of the world’s poorest are not left out of the welter of vulnerabilities the world now commonly possesses but inadequately resolves. Rising hunger and poverty in backward states should not be left out even as people protest the irksome state of affairs in Chile, Iraq(the second largest oil exporter among OPEC countries) , Iran, Lebanon etc.

The strengths the world will be carrying into 2020 include numerous advancements in technology and science such as AI and breakthroughs in medical science that hold great promise for the progress of mankind. One cheering news that has just come out of MIT, from its bioengineering department, is that cancer can now be detected by a DNA test before it even occurs. We also have Dr. Andrea Fratalocchi's development of a rigorous foolproof method for securing data and protecting privacy on computer networks. This is a greatly positive one for cybersecurity worldwide, especially as we march into the age of quantum computers. We also have promising innovation from a Nigerian medical scientist, Obinna Igwilo M.D. , who has invented a robot that can carry out surgical operations with minimal incisions.

Arising from the cluster of strengths and weaknesses which is currently prevalent in the world, we expect that national and international leaders will act more creatively and inclusively towards forestalling the palpable social phantoms the world dreads. One of the things the world dreads the most at the moment is that of an economic downturn. We all fear it coming at a time when most regions of the world, especially in the global south, which includes China, India, Argentina, Chile, South Africa etc. are struggling to either kickstart or revive economic growth. We also hope the MENA region will not explode in arms as tensions are currently rising in that region. 2020, clearly requires more creative commitment from global leadership across all spheres of international life, the political, business, technological, military and cultural spheres.